8 min readConcept sheetOften a 5- or 10-mark answer

Trends, problems and challenges in planning and decision making

Planning faces uncertainty and rigidity; decisions suffer from biases and group pressures. Managers respond with flexible plans, wider participation, better data and design thinking.

GroupthinkIrving Janis: pressure to agree silences doubts

BrainstormingAlex Osborn: generate ideas first, no criticism

Nominal group techniqueMembers write ideas alone, then rank them

Delphi techniqueExperts answer in anonymous rounds, never meeting

Criticisms and problems of planning

Planning may create rigidity: people stick to plans after conditions change.
Formal plans are hard to make for a fast-changing environment.
Formal plans cannot replace intuition and creativity.
Planning may focus attention on today's competition, not tomorrow's survival.
Past success can lead managers to repeat plans that no longer fit.
Planning needs time, money and data that small firms may lack.

Planning in uncertain environments: trends

Make plans specific but flexible, and review them often.
Use scenario planning: prepare for several possible futures.
Prepare contingency (backup) plans for crises.
Decentralize planning, so lower levels who see change first can help.
Keep scanning the environment and use up-to-date data.
Use big data and artificial intelligence tools for forecasting.

Common decision-making biases

Bias	Meaning
Overconfidence	Thinking you know more than you do
Anchoring	Fixing on the first information received and failing to adjust
Confirmation	Seeking only information that supports your existing view
Framing	Letting the way a problem is presented change the choice
Availability	Judging by events that are easy to remember, such as recent ones
Sunk costs	Letting past spending, which cannot be recovered, decide future action
Self-serving	Taking credit for success and blaming others for failure
Hindsight	Believing after the event that you knew it all along

Group decision making

AdvantagesMore complete information, more alternatives, greater acceptance of the solution, and more legitimacy because the decision followed a fair process.

DisadvantagesTakes more time, a few members may dominate, groupthink (pressure to agree) and unclear responsibility for the result.

Improve group decisions with brainstorming, the nominal group technique, the Delphi technique and electronic meetings. Design thinking (understand users, generate ideas, prototype, test) is a newer trend.

In Sri Lankan business

After the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, then COVID-19, then the 2022 economic crisis, Sri Lankan tourism was hit hard three times in four years. Hotel groups learned that rigid annual plans fail, while flexible, scenario-based plans and frequent reviews help them survive.

Exam angle

Short answer: “What is groupthink?” A form of conformity in which group members hold back different views so the group seems to agree, which leads to poor decisions.

Structured question: “State the advantages and disadvantages of group decision making.” Advantages: more information, more alternatives, acceptance, legitimacy. Disadvantages: time, domination by a few, groupthink, unclear responsibility. Add two techniques to improve.

Essay: “Discuss the trends, problems and challenges in planning and decision making.” Criticisms of planning, planning under uncertainty, common biases, group decision issues and modern tools such as big data and design thinking, with Sri Lankan crisis examples.

Remember it

Group techniques: 'Bright New Decisions Emerge' = Brainstorming, Nominal group, Delphi, Electronic meetings.